Jeongkeun Shin

Jeongkeun Shin

Ph.D. student in Societal Computing · Carnegie Mellon University

I build simulations that help organizations decide which cyber defenses to invest in. Good defensive tools already exist. The hard part is choosing the combination that fits one organization's people, systems, and budget, so I model attackers, defenders, and employees together and judge a defense by the damage the organization actually sustains.

Email
jeongkes at cs dot cmu dot edu
From
Ulsan, South Korea
CV Google Scholar
Portrait of Jeongkeun Shin

Research

My thesis work, Human-Centric Simulation for Organizational Cyber Defense, connects three questions: how real attacks unfold, which defenses are worth their cost, and how the people inside an organization change the outcome.

Attack Flow Networks

Real attacks are chains of techniques, not isolated events. I built the Cyber Attack Flow Intelligence Network from 1,031 public threat reports covering 170 MITRE ATT&CK groups and 50 campaigns. It records which technique tends to follow which, so simulated attackers take routes seen in real incidents instead of hand-written scenarios.

Defense Optimization

Given that network, which defenses cut the attacker off at the lowest cost? I answer this with minimum vertex cuts and budget-constrained interdiction, and I test the resulting plans against attackers who adapt and persist. The best plan depends on the budget: with ample funds, technical controls that disrupt post-intrusion activity; with tight ones, employee training and blocking initial malware execution.

Human-Centric Simulation

OSIRIS is an agent-based model of an organization whose employees differ in phishing susceptibility, fatigue, emotion, and social ties. It shows how people change what a defense delivers. In one study, the most accurate intrusion detector allowed more data theft than three less accurate ones, because it never monitored the techniques on the attacker's path.

Journal Papers

  1. J.4

    When Susceptibility Meets Centrality: Structural Placement Alters the Relative Performance of Targeted Phishing Training

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    Under review
  2. J.3

    Cyber Attack Flow Intelligence Network: Backbone Analysis and Defense Strategy Optimization

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    IEEE TNSE 2026

    Paper
  3. J.2

    Simulating Trust Dynamics Model for Interaction between Human and Intrusion Detection System under Hybrid Denial-of-Service and Spearphishing Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    SIMULATION 2026

    Paper
  4. J.1

    Simulating Cyber Defense: The Impact of Phishing Training and System Updates on Mitigating Damage from Hybrid Phishing and Watering Hole Attacks

    Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    JDMS 2025

    Paper

Conference Proceedings

  1. C.14

    Network-Based Cost-Aware Optimization of Ransomware Mitigation Strategies

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    SBP-BRiMS 2026

    Paper
  2. C.13

    Network-Based Defense Optimization Against Ransomware Campaigns

    Cathy Y. Wang, Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    SBP-BRiMS 2026

    Paper
  3. C.12

    Simulation-Based Evaluation of IDS Monitoring Strategies for Denial-of-Service Defense Using Attack Flow Analysis

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    WSC 2026

    Forthcoming
  4. C.11

    The Illusion of Optimal Defense: Static Interdiction under Adaptive and Persistent Attackers

    Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    AAAI Summer Symposium 2026

    Paper
  5. C.10

    Towards Real-time Cyber Warfare Simulation: A High-efficiency Heuristic for Budget-constrained Attack Interdiction

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    ANNSIM 2026

    Forthcoming
  6. C.9

    Network Analysis of Attack Flows in Ransomware Groups and Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    SBP-BRiMS 2025

    Paper
  7. C.8

    A Baseline Simulation of Hybrid Misinformation and Spearphishing Campaigns in Organizational Networks

    Jeongkeun Shin, Han Wang, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    WSC 2025

    Paper
  8. C.7

    Simulation of Human Organizations with Computational Human Factors Against Phishing Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    ICCWS 2025

    Paper
  9. C.6

    Design, Modeling and Simulation of Cybercriminal Personality-based Cyberattack Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    WSC 2024

    Paper
  10. C.5

    Simulation-Based Study on False Alarms in Intrusion Detection Systems for Organizations Facing Dual Phishing and DoS Attacks

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    ANNSIM 2024 Best Paper Runner-Up

    Paper
  11. C.4

    Integrating Human Factors into Agent-Based Simulation for Dynamic Phishing Susceptibility

    Jeongkeun Shin, Kathleen M. Carley, L. Richard Carley

    SBP-BRiMS 2023

    Paper
  12. C.3

    Beyond Accuracy: Cybersecurity Resilience Evaluation of Intrusion Detection System against DoS Attacks using Agent-based Simulation

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    WSC 2023

    Paper
  13. C.2

    Modeling and Simulation of the Human Firewall against Phishing Attacks in Small and Medium-sized Businesses

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    ANNSIM 2023

    Paper
  14. C.1

    OSIRIS: Organization Simulation in Response to Intrusion Strategies

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, Kathleen M. Carley, L. Richard Carley

    SBP-BRiMS 2022

    Paper

Posters & Extended Abstracts

  1. P.5

    Emotion-Based Agent-based Modeling and Simulation of Hybrid Cyber Attack Scenarios

    Jeongkeun Shin, Ellen Kim, Clarissa Chau, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    SBP-BRiMS 2026 · Poster

    Paper
  2. P.4

    A Machine Learning Surrogate Approach for Scalable Design Optimization in Cybersecurity Simulation

    Siyuan Zhai, Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    SBP-BRiMS 2025 · Poster

    Paper
  3. P.3

    Impact of Operating System Updates on Cybercriminal Access Duration: A Simulation-Based Study

    Jeongkeun Shin, Tanav Changal, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    WSC 2024 · Poster

    Paper
  4. P.2

    Leveraging OSIRIS to Simulate Real-world Ransomware Attacks on Organization

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    WSC 2022 · Poster

    Paper
  5. P.1

    Finding Integers from Group Orbits

    Jake Shin, Yike Xu, Catherine Zhang, Xin Zhang, Junxian Li, Xin Zhang

    IGL Open House, Spring 2017

    Brochure Poster Paper

Technical Reports

  1. T.2

    Attack Flow Network Models of MITRE ATT&CK Groups and Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    CASOS Technical Report 2025

    Forthcoming
  2. T.1

    Revelation of System and Human Vulnerabilities Across MITRE ATT&CK Techniques with Insights from ChatGPT

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    CASOS Technical Report 2023

    Paper