Carnegie Mellon University · S3D · SCS

Jeongkeun Shin

Ph.D. student in Societal Computing at Carnegie Mellon University. I study cyber conflict as a socio-technical system, building simulation and network-analytic tools that help defenders reason clearly about adversary tradecraft, human factors, and where the next unit of scarce attention will yield the greatest return.

Advisor Prof. Kathleen M. Carley  ·  CASOS
Email jeongkes at cs dot cmu dot edu
Origin Ulsan, South Korea
Curriculum Vitae Google Scholar
Portrait of Jeongkeun Shin Jeongkeun Shin, 2025
01

Research Interests

My work sits at the intersection of computational social science and cybersecurity, drawing on agent-based simulation, network analysis, and empirical modeling to reason about defense under uncertainty.

i.

Cyber Attack Modeling

Curating empirical adversary intelligence from MITRE ATT&CK groups and campaigns, and encoding it as an Attack Flow Intelligence Network whose nodes and edges capture how real-world attacks actually unfold. Backbone extraction on this network reveals the routes adversaries traverse most often, letting simulations sample diverse, evidence-grounded attack trajectories in place of a handful of hand-crafted scenarios.

ii.

Agent-Based Simulation

Building high-fidelity organizational simulations in which heterogeneous employees, defenders, and adversaries co-evolve in continuous time. Grounded in computational human factors, these models quantify how phishing training, patching cadence, and detection policies bend the trajectory of hybrid phishing, watering-hole, and social-engineering campaigns.

iii.

Defense Optimization

Treating defense as a resource-allocation problem against an adaptive, observing adversary. Designing budget-constrained interdiction heuristics that remain robust when attackers re-plan around the defense, moving beyond the illusion of optimality that a single static strategy provides.

02

Journal Papers

  1. J.3

    Cyber Attack Flow Intelligence Network: Backbone Analysis and Defense Strategy Optimization

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering

    Paper →
  2. J.2

    Simulating Trust Dynamics Model for Human-IDS Interaction under Hybrid Denial-of-Service and Spearphishing Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation

    Under Revision
  3. J.1

    Simulating Cyber Defense: The Impact of Phishing Training and System Updates on Mitigating Damage from Hybrid Phishing and Watering Hole Attacks

    Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation

    Paper →
03

Conference Proceedings

  1. C.14

    Network-Based Cost-Aware Optimization of Ransomware Mitigation Strategies

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2026 SBP-BRIMS: International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling & Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation

    Forthcoming
  2. C.13

    Network-Based Defense Optimization Against Ransomware Campaigns

    Cathy Y. Wang, Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2026 SBP-BRIMS: International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling & Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation

    Forthcoming
  3. C.12

    Simulation-Based Evaluation of IDS Monitoring Strategies for Denial-of-Service Defense Using Attack Flow Analysis

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2026 WSC: Winter Simulation Conference

    Forthcoming
  4. C.11

    The Illusion of Optimal Defense: Static Interdiction under Adaptive and Persistent Attackers

    Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2026 AAAI Summer Symposium: Human-Aware AI Agents for the Cyber Battlefield: From Human Models to Autonomous Defense Track

    Paper →
  5. C.10

    Towards Real-time Cyber Warfare Simulation: A High-efficiency Heuristic for Budget-constrained Attack Interdiction

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2026 ANNSIM: Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference

    Forthcoming
  6. C.9

    Network Analysis of Attack Flows in Ransomware Groups and Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2025 SBP-BRiMS: International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling & Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation

    Paper →
  7. C.8

    A Baseline Simulation of Hybrid Misinformation and Spearphishing Campaigns in Organizational Networks

    Jeongkeun Shin, Han Wang, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2025 WSC: Winter Simulation Conference

    Paper →
  8. C.7

    Simulation of Human Organizations with Computational Human Factors Against Phishing Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2025 ICCWS: International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security

    Paper →
  9. C.6

    Design, Modeling and Simulation of Cybercriminal Personality-based Cyberattack Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2024 WSC: Winter Simulation Conference

    Paper →
  10. C.5

    Simulation-Based Study on False Alarms in Intrusion Detection Systems for Organizations Facing Dual Phishing and DoS Attacks

    Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2024 ANNSIM: Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference  Best Paper Runner-Up

    Paper →
  11. C.4

    Integrating Human Factors into Agent-Based Simulation for Dynamic Phishing Susceptibility

    Jeongkeun Shin, Kathleen M. Carley, L. Richard Carley

    2023 SBP-BRiMS: International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling & Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation

    Paper →
  12. C.3

    Beyond Accuracy: Cybersecurity Resilience Evaluation of Intrusion Detection System against DoS Attacks using Agent-based Simulation

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2023 WSC: Winter Simulation Conference

    Paper →
  13. C.2

    Modeling and Simulation of the Human Firewall against Phishing Attacks in Small and Medium-sized Businesses

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2023 ANNSIM: Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference

    Paper →
  14. C.1

    OSIRIS: Organization Simulation in Response to Intrusion Strategies

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, Kathleen M. Carley, L. Richard Carley

    2022 SBP-BRiMS: International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling & Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation

    Paper →
04

Posters & Extended Abstracts

  1. P.4

    A Machine Learning Surrogate Approach for Scalable Design Optimization in Cybersecurity Simulation

    Siyuan Zhai, Jeongkeun Shin, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2025 SBP-BRiMS Poster Session: International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling & Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation

    Paper →
  2. P.3

    Impact of Operating System Updates on Cybercriminal Access Duration: A Simulation-Based Study

    Jeongkeun Shin, Tanav Changal, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2024 WSC Poster Session: Winter Simulation Conference

    Paper →
  3. P.2

    Leveraging OSIRIS to Simulate Real-world Ransomware Attacks on Organization

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    2022 WSC Poster Session: Winter Simulation Conference

    Paper →
  4. P.1

    Finding Integers from Group Orbits

    Jake Shin, Yike Xu, Catherine Zhang, Xin Zhang, Junxian Li, Xin Zhang

    Spring 2017 IGL Open House: Illinois Geometry Lab

    Brochure → Poster → Paper →
05

Technical Reports

  1. T.2

    Attack Flow Network Models of MITRE ATT&CK Groups and Campaigns

    Jeongkeun Shin, Siyuan Zhai, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    CASOS Technical Report, 2025

    Forthcoming
  2. T.1

    Revelation of System and Human Vulnerabilities Across MITRE ATT&CK Techniques with Insights from ChatGPT

    Jeongkeun Shin, Geoffrey B. Dobson, L. Richard Carley, Kathleen M. Carley

    CASOS Technical Report, 2023

    Paper →